R Factor Has Risen in the Past Week

The Department of Health continues to publish the Covid-19 reproduction number on a weekly basis.

The current estimate of R is 1.0 – 1.6.

• Average number of new positive tests per day last 7 days – 56.3 
• 7 day incidence based on new positive tests – 20.7 / 100k population
• 14 day incidence based on new positive tests – 36.9 / 100k population
• 7 day average of total tests (pillar 1 and 2) which are positive – 1.34%
• First COVID +ve hospital admission in last week – 14
• 7 day average number COVID occupied hospital beds – 17.0

The above indicators generally show a further increase in transmission in the last week.

The 7 day rolling average for new cases has increased as has test positivity, though both are likely to be strongly influenced by a meat factory outbreak in Mid and East Antrim. 

14 day cases per 100k remain higher than the UK as a whole and ROI. 

This is likely to be partly explainable by increased testing in the context of the Test / Trace / Protect service. 

However, there is also likely to be a more widespread increase in community transmission which is a matter of significant concern. 

Hospital admissions are increasing very slowly but are still at a low level in comparison to the first wave when there was a comparable number of cases. 

The view from both the Modelling Group and the Strategic Intelligence Group is that they will inevitably rise if cases continue to do so.