Ryder Cup 2025 supercomputer: Team USA projected to win the cup back on home soil with 57.1% chance, but prospect of a draw means an away win is closer than it first appears
- Team USA have been given a 57.1% chance of winning their third straight Ryder Cup at home.
- Europe are outsiders with a 35.3% chance of victory, although a draw is given a 7.6% chance and would see the visitors retain the cup.
- The likeliest final score in the 2025 Ryder Cup is USA 14.5-13.5 Europe, which has a 14.4% chance of happening. But, Europe’s second-most likely path to victory is an 18.5-9.5 win.
A supercomputer has projected that Team USA will win the Ryder Cup back from Europe at Bethpage in New York, with the bi-annual tournament scheduled to take place in late September.
The supercomputer, which was conducted by Boyle Sports, gives the hosts a 57.1% chance of winning the title back after they lost it in a 16.5-11.5 defeat in Rome last time out in 2023.
Team Europe, meanwhile, are given a 35.3% chance of retaining their title outright and becoming the first team since 2012 to win the Ryder Cup away from home. That year saw Europe win 14.5-13.5 at Medinah, despite having been 10-6 down at the start of play on the final day.
While the visitors are considered outsiders by the supercomputer when it comes to emulating the Miracle at Medinah, a draw would also see them retain the cup having won it in 2023. Europe are given a 7.3% chance of happening, meaning that their cumulative probability of keeping the trophy until at least 2027 is 42.9%.
| Winner | Probability (%) |
| USA | 57.1% |
| EU | 35.3% |
| DRAW | 7.6% |
Likeliest outcome would see USA win by one, although a home rout is not out of the question
The prediction model has highlighted that a 14.5-13.5 victory for Team USA is the likeliest outcome in the 2025 Ryder Cup, being given a 14.4% chance of happening.
In line with the main prediction, seven of the 12 most probable scorelines according to the supercomputer would result in victory for the home team. Notably, the second, fourth and sixth-most likely scorelines would see Team USA win by at least five points.
The second-most likely score given by the model is an 18.5-9.5 victory for Team USA, which is given a 12.5% chance of happening. A 19-9 home victory, meanwhile, is pegged at a probability of 5.7% – for context, the reverse is given a 2.3% chance of happening.
European hopes not a foregone conclusion, with their second-likeliest winning margin being by nine points
While the prediction model suggests that three of the four most likely scorelines in the Ryder Cup favour Team USA, a win for the visitors is not out of the question. The third-likeliest final score would see Europe win by one, with a 14.5-13.5 away win given a 10.4% chance.
More striking though, is a nine-point European victory is given a 6.8% chance of happening, making it the sixth-most likely outcome in the Ryder Cup. Just 0.8% more likely is a draw, which would also see Team Europe take the cup back with them.
| USA Points | EU Points | Winner | Difference | Probability |
| 14.5 | 13.5 | USA | 1 | 14.4% |
| 18.5 | 9.5 | USA | 9 | 12.5% |
| 13.5 | 14.5 | EU | -1 | 10.4% |
| 16.5 | 11.5 | USA | 5 | 9.2% |
| 14 | 14 | DRAW | 0 | 7.6% |
| 9.5 | 18.5 | EU | -9 | 6.8% |
| 19 | 9 | USA | 10 | 5.7% |
| 17 | 11 | USA | 6 | 5.6% |
| 11.5 | 16.5 | EU | -5 | 5.1% |
| 15 | 13 | USA | 2 | 4.3% |
| 11 | 17 | EU | -6 | 3.8% |
| 17.5 | 10.5 | USA | 7 | 3.7% |
| 13 | 15 | EU | -2 | 2.6% |
| 9 | 19 | EU | -10 | 2.3% |
| 10.5 | 17.5 | EU | -7 | 2.1% |
| 12.5 | 15.5 | EU | -3 | 2.1% |
| 15.5 | 12.5 | USA | 3 | 1.8% |
While a one-point victory for Team USA is the likeliest specific scoreline, the prediction model also highlights that things could also very easily become strung out for either team.
The probability of the final margin of victory being five points or higher is 56.8% according to the model, with each of the last five Ryder Cups having been separated by five points or more.
The margin of victory climbing to six or more is where things start to have a smaller than one in two chance of happening, with it happening in 42.5% of the 10,000 simulations within the model.
There is just an 8% chance of either team winning by 10 or more, with the USA’s 19-9 victory in Whistling Straits in 2021 the only example of that margin since 1975.
| Score Difference | Probability |
| One or more | 92.4% |
| Two or more | 67.6% |
| Three or more | 60.7% |
| Five or more | 56.8% |
| Six or more | 42.5% |
| Seven or more | 33.1% |
| Nine or more | 27.3% |
| 10 or more | 8% |
Methodology
- Data from betting odds and historical performance was used to understand how well Ryder Cup teams perform at home and away.
- From there, a prediction model was built to understand how the variables link to how likely each team is to win and work out the chances of exact scores at this year’s Ryder Cup.
- Using this model, 10,000 simulations were run to determine the favourite for the Ryder Cup, and also the likeliest winning scores for each team.
