Brexit Wobbles, But Will It Fall ?

Politicians are watching the Brexit bubble burst before their eyes.
The mood across the EU, ROI and the UK is becoming more intense as the impasse at the Brexit negotiations grows deeper and a potential disaster could be in the making which could upset the NI economy and destroy the Good Friday Agreement bringing NI back to the stone age.
PM Theresa May faces a divided country and a divided cabinet. Backstops, agreements, borders, political and economic uncertainty, deals and no deals, referendums and no referendums are in the melting pot. Political media pundits are asking everyone across the board, what is the solution?  Answers are as confused and diverse as ever. There is little consensus on the Brexit issue.
Comments from regional and local politicians have re-affirmed the wide approaches viewed over Brexit and a growing crisis is looming. There is limited appetite across Northern Ireland except from the DUP for a potential hard border and an exit from the EU without a referendum or an agreement ie a hard Brexit.
The DUP were asked to provide a statement but have not responded going to print.
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Hazzard Discusses Brexit Implications With Dublin Government 
Chris Hazzard MP, right, with Senator Niall Ó Donnghaile at the Department of Foreign Affairs & Trade, Dublin on Friday.
South Down MP Chris Hazzard was in Dublin on Friday for a briefing with Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (DFA) officials on the ongoing Brexit negotiations and possible impact on future trading arrangements across Ireland, Britain, and Europe.
Mr Hazzard said: “At this critical juncture in the Brexit negotiations it is vital that we have strong, informed voices at the table making the case for local communities, local business, and the protection of citizens’ rights going forward.
“I want to thank DFA officials for engaging constructively on these issues and committing to continue this engagement in the time ahead.
“In the face of bewildering deflection and heightening rhetoric from Downing Street, the Irish Government and the European Union must remain resolute. They must remain true to their word that without an agreed, legally enforceable ‘backstop’ there will be no Withdrawal Agreement.”
No Withdrawal Agreement means technically that a hard border situation could prevail by default unless a solution is found.
DUP ‘Veto’ Distorting Views And Interests of Northern Ireland Says Farry

Alliance Brexit spokesperson Stephen Farry MLA has called for the rhetoric against the backstop to be de-escalated and “the wider political and economic interests of Northern Ireland to be understood, compared to the distorted views of the DUP.”

Alliance MLA Stephen Farry calls for backstop rhetoric to be de-escalated.

He said: “This is a time of huge political crisis for the UK and for Northern Ireland in particular. The major outstanding issue in the Withdrawal Agreement relates to finalising the backstop to maintain an open border on the island of Ireland and to protect the Good Friday Agreement.

“Our future is being determined over our heads. But not only does Northern Ireland not have any formal voice, but the interests of this region are being badly distorted and misrepresented by the DUP and in turn amplified through the confidence and supply arrangement.

“The UK Government and Opposition are risking a catastrophic no-deal Brexit based on a counter-productive and short-sighted political agenda, a disregard of the political and economic interests of Northern Ireland, and a misunderstanding of the Agreement. The DUP are potentially dragging down not only Northern Ireland but the UK as a whole.

“The rhetoric around the backstop being a breach of the Principle of Consent and a constitutional problem is simply wrong. Northern Ireland already does many things differently through devolution, including aspects of economic policy. The backstop if ever implemented would only build upon these precedents.

“Northern Ireland is already a different and special place. It only works on the basis of sharing and interdependence. And while it remains part of the UK through the Principle of Consent, the internal, north-south, and east-west relationships all need to co-exist in harmony and balance.

“While all forms of Brexit would be damaging, special arrangements for Northern Ireland that build upon the backstop would allow the region to be part of both the UK market and the larger EU markets at the same time, and provide some comparative advantage that could be attractive to investment. It would be a tragedy of narrow politics meant that this potential transformative opportunity was passed up.

“It is time for a de-escalation of the rhetoric against the backstop and for a more realistic and mature assessment and understanding of the road ahead.”

SDLP MLA Colin McGrath Comments On Political Impasse

South Down MLA Colin McGrath

Colin McGrath MLA said: “The North didn’t vote for Brexit and the reason is quite clear – the majority of people here are happy to be part of Europe.

“What has become increasingly obvious is that the British Government is not capable of commanding a majority in any quarter in Westminster to deliver any definitive form of Brexit – but the solution that will ultimately be found must not penalise the people of Ireland – North or South to placate those in ‘little England.
“To remove the North from the customs union or single market will have a massive and detrimental impact upon businesses here and any enforcement of a hard border could result in upscaling of security infrastructure at the Border which will impact communities and the way of life for those in border counties and that is not acceptable either.
“We must have a second referendum so the people of the UK can vote in the full knowledge of the past two years worth of information about Brexit – which has surely changed the perspective of many and would deliver a majority remain decision.”

Alliance Councillor McMurray Backs His Party Line

Newry Mourne and Down District Alliance Councillor Andrew McMurray has supported Mr Farry’s comments and said: “We are in a very strange place politically with Brexit.

Cllr Andrew McMurray.

“On the one hand the DUP don’t support the people of Northern Ireland whilst they say they do and support the Tories threatening the future of the GFA, and Sinn Féin don’t take their seats in Westminster so we have none of their representation there.

“I will be bringing a motion forward to Council in due course calling on a people’s vote over Brexit. That way it will get aired our in the Council chamber. This is potentially a very serious situation for South Down as we are on the border and no one yet knows how this will all play out.

“Basically, we need to get Stormont up and running in some shape or form. The political process in Northern Ireland is much in the media spotlight and the politicians elected to Stormont must be held to account so their positions reflect the will of the people. Leaving the EU should involve a consent principle in a vote even at regional level and it is not right that our voices are being ignored by the Tories and by the DUP.

“Brexit will have a devastating effect on Ireland North and South if it is a bad Brexit. We must avoid this situation from arising. We must get Stormont moving again so that it can provide the correct guidance and policy direction and scrutiny for government departments which are failing at the moment.

“There needs to be local input into the Brexit decision and that authority is simply the will of the people, not the whims of any one political party. It will be an intense few months ahead. ”

Labour Leader Corbyn Backs Referendum If His Party Agrees At Conference.

As Labour Leader Jeremy Corbyn heads into the Labour Party conference this week he has made a statement to the effect that he will accept the democratic decision of his party if it votes for a referendum to be had over Brexit. He has said that he will bring the Tories down in Westminster if necessary. But he has called on all the parties in Northern Ireland to resurrect devolution at Stormont as a key measure in maintaining political stability in the region.

Theresa May Stuck Between Rock and Hard Place.

PM Theresa May has proposed that if there is no deal by March 2020, that the backstop be introduced which is a set of proposals which aims to keep the UK in the Customs Union and the Single Market while simultaneously being able to make trading deals with other countries. The EU has suggested Northern Ireland could remain in the Customs Union and Single Market but there is a risk of a border in the Irish Sea. May insists that alignment with the EU over the backstop is for a short period only.

The EU last week at the Brexit negotiations gave Theresa May a couple of weeks to come up with some concrete proposals beyond her ‘Chequers proposals’ which they saw as inadequate or the deal for the Exit Agreement would be off – with an option of a final round of negotiations in October. No deal means no deal. And the UK would float into a scenario where it operates under World Trade Organisation mechanisms. Neither the UK nor the EU actually want this as an option. The border issue in Ireland is the sticking point.

The idea of turning Belfast into a free port has also been mooted, but uncertainty remains for businesses and residents across the 300 miles of border between Northern Ireland and the ROI.

Will the Brexit jelly just wobble, or will it fall? It is the most profound political and economic question facing NI since it was set up almost 100 years ago. And true to form, the jury is out… and may well stay out. The decision will be taken in Westminster. Above the heads of the local voters and politicians which begs the question, is Stormont necessary at all now as a devolved mechanism?

But that is a discussion for another day.