Countryside issues will decide the next election reveals new poll
A new poll from MRP YouGov shows the predicted results if a General Election in the UK were held immediately.
Countryside Alliance has said that the poll shows that Labour would lose a large proportion of their seats, with gains going principally to Reform UK, the SNP gaining considerably, and small gains to the Conservatives, Plaid Cymru and the Greens.
Many of the constituencies which would change hands are in the countryside. However, as Labour does not allow its supporters to stand for election in Northern Ireland, one can cautiously examine the results in the rest of the UK and speculate what the outcome would be in NI.
Of 135 rural and semi-rural seats currently held by Labour in Scotland, England and Wales, the party would lose 79 constituencies if a General Election were held tomorrow.
The country sports’ spokesperson added that the vast majority of these seats would go to Reform, who would gain 46 seats, followed by the SNP with 16, the Conservatives with 14, and Plaid Cymru with 3.
The new poll shows that Labour would lose 170 seats in total, resulting in them losing their majority by 85 seats. Labour’s loss of rural support would therefore play an overwhelming role in losing the ruling party their majority.
Of the 56 rural and semi-rural seats that Labour would hold, 51 would only be held marginally.
In 22 constituencies, they would have a 2% or less lead over the next most successful party, in a further 12 seats, their lead would only widen to 5% or less, and in a further 17 constituencies, their lead would be between 5% and 10%.
Were the government to lose these marginal seats, they would only hold 190 seats.
In either scenario, they would not be able to form a government with an overall majority in the House of Commons.
However, of those 79 seats that Labour would lose, 63 would only be marginal losses. 15 of the seats would be ultra marginal, with Labour only 2% behind the winning party’s share of the vote, 24 would be extremely marginal, with Labour receiving 5% less of the vote, and in a further 24 constituencies they would be 10% or less behind the winners.
A recent poll by ORB commissioned by the Countryside Alliance found that over a quarter of rural people (28%) said they would be more likely to vote Labour if the party resets its relationship with the countryside.
The data suggests that the countryside will play a huge role in the next General Election.
Labour’s huge losses in the countryside could be prevented if the government regains favour from rural voters, but that will only happen if there is a clear reset in relations, and policies such as the Family Farm Tax, attacks on game shooting, and the proposed trail hunting ban are dropped.
On the other hand, the polling suggests Labour’s support in the countryside could drop even further if the relationship between government and rural communities continues to deteriorate, which would result in further losses for the government in more than fifty further constituencies.
Mo Metcalf-Fisher, Director of External Affairs at the Countryside Alliance, said: “The case for a rural reset between the government and rural people couldn’t be more obvious.
“Rural people are being clobbered by a range of damaging policies, from the family farm tax, hikes to NI and attacks on racing, shooting and trail hunting, all of which are completely out synch with the priorities of voters.
“These stark findings should hammer home the urgent need for the government to start legislating for rural people, not against them, while there is still time”.
And in Northern Ireland, farmers, fishermen, rural commuters, health workers, and rural home owners, and many other sectors are disgruntled by the offering from the parties at Stormont, but as arguments about the Irish language abound, and the row over Drumcree once again continues, we will likely see a political polarisation continuing towards the ballot box in Northern Ireland next May, somewhat flattening out the direct disgruntlement with policy-makers from Westminster to Stormont.
Alliance MLA’s John Blair’s Hunting Bill has raised a few hackles in the country sports and game management sectors and his bill could yet be watered down to being ineffectual, or even stalled or simply voted out.
But sectors of the NI society are deeply concerned and it will remain to be seen how this pans out in the election as polls can vary to some extent over time. But the anger with the political establish certainly runs deep at the moment, and the question remains: can the Assembly and indeed Councils truly deliver for the rural (and urban) people of Northern Ireland in the present political set-up at Stormont ?
